1. ¿Debemos dejar la economía en manos de los economistas?
2. ¿Por qué hay recesiones y cómo se sale de ellas?
3. ¿Sirven las devaluaciones?
4. ¿Hay que evitar los déficits fiscales?
5. ¿Por qué existe la inflación y cómo se la combate?
6. ¿Cuánto (y qué) se debería exportar e importar?
7. ¿Por qué hay barreras a las exportaciones y a las importaciones?
8. ¿Deberían impedirse la entrada y la salida de dólares?
9. ¿Cuánto y cómo debería recaudar y gastar el gobierno?
10. ¿Cuál es el rol de los bancos y por qué hay crisis financieras?
11. ¿Hay una receta para el crecimiento sostenido de la economía?
12. ¿Podemos desterrar la pobreza y la desigualdad?
Este libro te ayudará a entender estas preguntas!!
lunes, 8 de octubre de 2012
Prólogo
El objetivo de este libro es a la vez simple y ambicioso. He buscado razonar y responder, sin rodeos y con la mayor claridad y objetividad posibles, muchas de las preguntas que nos hacemos a diario sobre la economía argentina e internacional.
Todos queremos saber por qué el país crece, por qué existe la inflación, por qué hay crisis y recuperaciones, si conviene devaluar, cuál es la mejor manera de afrontar los problemas sociales. Nos preguntamos hasta dónde tiene que llegar la acción del Estado, si hay que frenar las importaciones, si los déficits fiscales y la entrada de capitales extranjeros son buenos o malos.
A lo largo de 12 capítulos, formularemos y buscaremos responder preguntas sobre la economía que nos interesan y nos preocupan. Toda pregunta debería tener una buena respuesta corta y haremos el mayor esfuerzo para lograrla.
Si algo distingue a este libro, es que aborda estas fascinantes y espinosas preguntas evitando los vicios más comunes de los economistas y de los no economistas. Como diremos luego, los economistas complican demasiado lo que no es tan complicado, y los no economistas simplifican demasiado lo que no es tan simple.
Durante el recorrido por estos temas, pondré especial énfasis en las intuiciones engañosas. Mucha gente, incluidos no pocos economistas, cree casi ciegamente en ideas que parecen irrefutables sin necesidad de prueba alguna. Su lógica es tan terminante que las eximiría de cualquier crítica. Pues bien, muchas de estas intuiciones son correctas, pero muchas están groseramente equivocadas. Desde luego, sus fisuras no son evidentes a primera vista y hasta pueden contener alguna dosis de verdad, aunque no la suficiente para hacerlas ciertas. No hay peor mentira que una verdad a medias.
Mi enfoque va mucho más allá de dejar que los números hablen. Dentro de mis humildes posibilidades, quiero ayudar a mostrar cómo se razonan los problemas económicos, para que cada uno de nosotros pueda formarse luego una opinión propia. Con este propósito en mente, plantearé al inicio de cada tema las posiciones que existen en torno a esa cuestión y las fortalezas y debilidades de los argumentos a favor y en contra. Sólo entonces les cederé la palabra a las estadísticas.
Este libro está dirigido a todo lector interesado en la economía y no se necesitan en absoluto conocimientos previos. Como tendrán la oportunidad de comprobar, el tono no es nada solemne: reservo la solemnidad para cuando me entreguen el Premio Nobel de Economía por haber escrito estas páginas. No uso jerga técnica, que sólo comprenderían otros economistas y que se puede obviar sin perder profundidad en los conceptos.
Uno trata de escribir el libro que le hubiera gustado leer y siento que he logrado ese objetivo. Al final de su lectura, usted me dirá si soy el único.
Ricardo Bebczuk
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